Panaji, March 9: The state of Goa went to polls on February 4 and the results of March 11 will decide the fate of 251 candidates who contested in the Goa Assembly elections 2017. Considered as a four-cornered battle between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress, the debutant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the grand alliance of Shiv Sena, Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) and Goa Suraksha Manch (GSM), the election trail remained intriguing, with poll pundits claiming that a clear winner may not emerge.
While BJP has been campaigning in the state on the name of Manohar Parrikar and Narendra Modi, AAP contested the Goa Assembly election on the issue of corruption and clean politics. Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi also campaigned for the grand old party in the state. The opinion polls released ahead of the exit polls predicted a tough fight between BJP and Congress in the state and AAP to be at the third spot. The exit polls for Goa will be released today and the polls could predict wrong results for Goa.
Following are the reasons why the exit polls may predict wrong results of Goa Assembly elections:
Record voter turnover:
The total voter turnover in Goa in 2017 assembly elections was 83 percent. Due to such a high voter turnover, there is no clear picture on which party may emerge victorious in the elections. Usually, a higher voter turnover leads to change of government of the state. In Delhi Assembly elections, a high voter turnover lead to the change of throne in the union territory and AAP emerged victorious in the state despite several exit polls claiming BJP to form the government in the capital.
Failure of exit polls in 2012:
In the 2012 Assembly elections, the exit polls predicted a tough competition between Congress and BJP and out of the 40 seats, the exit polls on an average claimed BJP to win 20, Congress to win 17 and other parties to win 3 seats. The exit polls in its calculation underestimated the local Goan parties and in the end, the Congress was limited to 9 seats whereas the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party won 3, Goa Vikas Party won 2 and independent candidates won 5 seats in the Goa Assembly Elections.
|Party||Seats won in 2012|
|Goa Vikas Party||2|
|Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party||3|
People of Goa in favour of BJP?
The opinion polls have repeatedly stated that the people of Goa are in favour of BJP. However, there are reports stating that the people have been against many decisions implicated by BJP in Goa. Before the 2012 Goa Assembly elections, when BJP was in opposition, the party contested the 2012 assembly elections promising to bring back the money that the state has lost due to illegal mining. The party also had promised to resolve the Mopa airport issues and ban all the casinos in Goa. However, after coming to power, the face of BJP elections Manohar Parrikar was transferred to Delhi in 2014 and the state BJP failed in resolving any of the promises it made in the 2012 assembly elections. The party failed in the illegal mining issue and over the issue of banning casinos, the senior party leaders spoke in favour of the casinos stating that banning them will reduce the revenue of the state. In all such scenario, the opinion polls claiming the people of Goa to be in favour of BJP may prove false.
AAP factor and GSM factor:
Another reason that the exit polls may fail in predicting the result of Goa is the debut of AAP in the state and the decision of RSS rebel Subhash Velingkar’s Goa Suraksha Manch to contest the Goa Assembly elections. On one hand, AAP is contesting the Goa Assembly elections with the face of Elvis Gomes who is considered to be one of the most credible face in the state whereas Subhash Velingkar’s GSM may cut the votes of BJP in the Goa Assembly elections. In such scenario, it would be very difficult for the exit polls to predict the results of Goa Assembly elections.
Wave of change evident
At the ground level, people of Goa has been stating that a wave of change is evident in the state. “People of Goa want change in the state and according to me, a bureaucrat who has handled almost every post of the system is capable of becoming the next chief minister of the state,” said a voter in Cuncolim constituency. AAP parachute volunteers also believe that the people of Goa are in the favour of the party and speaking to India.com, AAP volunteer Munawar Deshmukh, an AAP volunteer of Mumbai stated that ” In all my conversation I had with the voters of different constituencies of Goa, I received positive reply from the voters and according to me, AAP will emerge as the single largest party in the state.”
However, BJP volunteers of Goa claim that the wave is in the favour of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “People of Goa are in favour of change but they want to experience the change in term of Manohar Parrikar becoming the chief minister of Goa,” a BJP volunteer of Goa stated further adding that “It totally depends upon the high command whether Manohar Parrikar remains at the centre or is transferred to Goa again.”
The exit polls of Goa Assembly Elections 2017 will be released on Thursday evening and the results will be declared on March 11.